The private residential market experienced an increase in home prices in the last quarter, increasing 5% in a row, according to the most recent estimation from the index of prices made by the Urban Redevelopment Authority.
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The most recent quarterly report shows significantly higher than that 1.1% q-o-q increase that was recorded by the residential market for private homes in the 3Q2021.
In 2021 as a whole the price index for homes in the residential private market rose in 10.6% y-o-y, which is the highest price increase since FY2010, in which prices increased at 17.6% y-o-y.
“Aspiration to buy or purchase a private home is still strong, in spite of fears of pandemics and cooling measures however, it has been helped by an environment of low interest rates,” says Ong Teck Hui, the senior director of research and consulting at JLL.
He says that the five% increase in private home prices in the 4Q2021 quarter was due to a high buyer demand and positive pricing from developers and contributed to “robust price rises across all segments of the market,” he says.
The price increase was higher than anticipated
Based on Ismail Gafoor, CEO of PropNex Realty, the price rise in the quarter ended up being higher than anticipated and was fueled by higher launch prices for brand new launch locations in CCR and RCR. CCR as well as the RCR.
As an example, based on the caveats, CanningHill Piers in Clarke Quay emerged as the most popular project in the in the last quarter, selling 582 units for an average of $2,937 per sq ft, while Jervois Mansion sold 101 units for an average of $2,578 per sq ft.
Other projects previously launched like Normanton Park, The Avenir as well as Leedon Green also continued to increase inventory in the last quarter.
“Policy makers could have anticipated the significant price hike in 4Q21 similar to pre-cooling measures the price trend of 2010 quarterly. This could have led to the decision to tighten cooling procedures beginning on 16 December 2021.” Ong says.
He says the recent property cooling measures, which were announced on December 16 2021 are likely to bring about some relief in the market , as buyers and sellers put off purchases to assess the current situation which may result in a slight decrease of transactions in the near term He says.
“In retrospective perspective, looking back at the dramatic price rise in the final quarter of 2018 and the overall trend in 2021, we believe the decision of the government to institute these new measures of cooling on the 16th of December was an appropriate one and will put stop to the potential for a rapid acceleration of price rise,” says Gafoor.
PropNex Research estimates that for the entirety of 2021, the number of new homes sold could reach 13,000 units. Meanwhile, the resale market in private could reach around 19,000 sold units. But, in the coming year new home sales may slow down to 9,000 to 10,000 units for new construction and 15,000-16,000 resales units sold.
But, Ong isn’t expecting prices in the residential private market to drop in 2022 since the new releases continue to bring units and the existing inventory of unsold units is at a low level, with approximately 17,000 un-sold units remaining.
“There is less pressure on developers to lower costs, particularly those who are in a good financial situation. However, the price increase of private homes is likely to slow down because of the cooling measures, which will increase by 2% up to% in 2022.” Ong says.
Steady price increases across all segments
Based on the estimates from the flash Based on the flash estimates, According to the flash estimates, the Rest of Central Region (RCR) has seen the highest rise on the cost index, rising 7.3% in non-landed home prices. This is the highest quarter-to-quarter increase for this sector since 1Q2010, when the RCR index for non-landed homes climbed 7.8% at that time.
The hugely positive introduction of Canninghill Piers in November 2021 was a key factor in the rise in RCR prices in the last quarter. The project was sold out to 582 units for the median price of $2,886 per sq ft.
The prices of homes for sale that aren’t landed located in suburbs also known as outside the Central Region (OCR), saw a significant 5.4% price increase in the 4Q2021. “Affordable rates in this sector attracted buyers which includes numerous HDB upgraders. HDB upgraders have profited from the growing HDB resale market” According to Ong.
In the HDB market saw resales rise by 12% throughout 2021 based on most recent URA flash estimations.
Price increases in the OCR was likely triggered by strong sales at the launch of new products like the Commodore, which sold 164 units for an average price of $1,511 per square foot, as well as Dairy Farm Residences which sold 150 units for the median price of $1,657 per square foot.
In the meantime, home values were up in Core Central Region (CCR) increased by 2.5% q-o-q in 4Q2021.
The market for homes that are landed experienced a surge in prices for homes in the last quarter growing to 3.7% q-o-q. In total, this segment saw an 13.1% y-o-y price increase.
New launches and uncertainty in 2022
As per Nicholas Mak, head of research and consultancy for ERA Realty, various market factors could cause the residential real estate market to fluctuate in various direction this year.
“Factors like the anticipated growth in the economy, continued government efforts to protect and create employment, and the potential for more foreigners who want to study, work and live in Singapore will positively impact the real estate market and demand” Mak says. Mak.
While the more restrictive property market restrictions, potential increases in interest rates, and the ongoing effects of the pandemic may weigh on in the property markets this time of year. “Among all of these the most recent series of measures to cool the market is the most significant impact that could significantly raise the uncertainty on this market for the local property market” Mak said. Mak.
Lee Sze Teck, senior director (research), Huttons Asia anticipates upwards of 43 projects that are ready for launch that are in the pipeline this year. It includes two Executive Condo (EC) launched in the form of North Gaia in Yishun and another EC project along Tengah Garden Walk. Another EC project located along Tampines Street 62 could launch in the 1Q2023.
The new projects that will be launched during 1Q2022 comprise Belgravia Ace off Ang Mo Kio Ave 5, Kovan Jewel on Kovan Road, Royal Hallmark on Haig Lane, and The Arden on Phoenix Road.
“The market is still dominated by supply. The smaller number of homes (that might) be available for auction in 2022 could mean lower new homes sales. The market for new homes may be able to sell between 8,000-9,000 units. Prices could move upwards of three% in 2022 due to the back of increased construction costs.” Lee says. Lee.