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The private residential market experienced an increase in home prices in the last quarter, increasing 5% in a row, according to the most recent estimation from the index of prices made by the Urban Redevelopment Authority.

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The most recent quarterly report shows significantly higher than that 1.1% q-o-q increase that was recorded by the residential market for private homes in the 3Q2021.

In 2021 as a whole the price index for homes in the residential private market rose in 10.6% y-o-y, which is the highest price increase since FY2010, in which prices increased at 17.6% y-o-y.
“Aspiration to buy or purchase a private home is still strong, in spite of fears of pandemics and cooling measures however, it has been helped by an environment of low interest rates,” says Ong Teck Hui, the senior director of research and consulting at JLL.

He says that the five% increase in private home prices in the 4Q2021 quarter was due to a high buyer demand and positive pricing from developers and contributed to “robust price rises across all segments of the market,” he says.

The price increase was higher than anticipated

Based on Ismail Gafoor, CEO of PropNex Realty, the price rise in the quarter ended up being higher than anticipated and was fueled by higher launch prices for brand new launch locations in CCR and RCR. CCR as well as the RCR.

As an example, based on the caveats, CanningHill Piers in Clarke Quay emerged as the most popular project in the in the last quarter, selling 582 units for an average of $2,937 per sq ft, while Jervois Mansion sold 101 units for an average of $2,578 per sq ft.

Other projects previously launched like Normanton Park, The Avenir as well as Leedon Green also continued to increase inventory in the last quarter.

“Policy makers could have anticipated the significant price hike in 4Q21 similar to pre-cooling measures the price trend of 2010 quarterly. This could have led to the decision to tighten cooling procedures beginning on 16 December 2021.” Ong says.

He says the recent property cooling measures, which were announced on December 16 2021 are likely to bring about some relief in the market , as buyers and sellers put off purchases to assess the current situation which may result in a slight decrease of transactions in the near term He says.

“In retrospective perspective, looking back at the dramatic price rise in the final quarter of 2018 and the overall trend in 2021, we believe the decision of the government to institute these new measures of cooling on the 16th of December was an appropriate one and will put stop to the potential for a rapid acceleration of price rise,” says Gafoor.

PropNex Research estimates that for the entirety of 2021, the number of new homes sold could reach 13,000 units. Meanwhile, the resale market in private could reach around 19,000 sold units. But, in the coming year new home sales may slow down to 9,000 to 10,000 units for new construction and 15,000-16,000 resales units sold.

But, Ong isn’t expecting prices in the residential private market to drop in 2022 since the new releases continue to bring units and the existing inventory of unsold units is at a low level, with approximately 17,000 un-sold units remaining.

“There is less pressure on developers to lower costs, particularly those who are in a good financial situation. However, the price increase of private homes is likely to slow down because of the cooling measures, which will increase by 2% up to% in 2022.” Ong says.

Steady price increases across all segments

Based on the estimates from the flash Based on the flash estimates, According to the flash estimates, the Rest of Central Region (RCR) has seen the highest rise on the cost index, rising 7.3% in non-landed home prices. This is the highest quarter-to-quarter increase for this sector since 1Q2010, when the RCR index for non-landed homes climbed 7.8% at that time.

The hugely positive introduction of Canninghill Piers in November 2021 was a key factor in the rise in RCR prices in the last quarter. The project was sold out to 582 units for the median price of $2,886 per sq ft.

The prices of homes for sale that aren’t landed located in suburbs also known as outside the Central Region (OCR), saw a significant 5.4% price increase in the 4Q2021. “Affordable rates in this sector attracted buyers which includes numerous HDB upgraders. HDB upgraders have profited from the growing HDB resale market” According to Ong.

In the HDB market saw resales rise by 12% throughout 2021 based on most recent URA flash estimations.

Price increases in the OCR was likely triggered by strong sales at the launch of new products like the Commodore, which sold 164 units for an average price of $1,511 per square foot, as well as Dairy Farm Residences which sold 150 units for the median price of $1,657 per square foot.

In the meantime, home values were up in Core Central Region (CCR) increased by 2.5% q-o-q in 4Q2021.
The market for homes that are landed experienced a surge in prices for homes in the last quarter growing to 3.7% q-o-q. In total, this segment saw an 13.1% y-o-y price increase.

New launches and uncertainty in 2022

As per Nicholas Mak, head of research and consultancy for ERA Realty, various market factors could cause the residential real estate market to fluctuate in various direction this year.
“Factors like the anticipated growth in the economy, continued government efforts to protect and create employment, and the potential for more foreigners who want to study, work and live in Singapore will positively impact the real estate market and demand” Mak says. Mak.

While the more restrictive property market restrictions, potential increases in interest rates, and the ongoing effects of the pandemic may weigh on in the property markets this time of year. “Among all of these the most recent series of measures to cool the market is the most significant impact that could significantly raise the uncertainty on this market for the local property market” Mak said. Mak.

Lee Sze Teck, senior director (research), Huttons Asia anticipates upwards of 43 projects that are ready for launch that are in the pipeline this year. It includes two Executive Condo (EC) launched in the form of North Gaia in Yishun and another EC project along Tengah Garden Walk. Another EC project located along Tampines Street 62 could launch in the 1Q2023.

The new projects that will be launched during 1Q2022 comprise Belgravia Ace off Ang Mo Kio Ave 5, Kovan Jewel on Kovan Road, Royal Hallmark on Haig Lane, and The Arden on Phoenix Road.

“The market is still dominated by supply. The smaller number of homes (that might) be available for auction in 2022 could mean lower new homes sales. The market for new homes may be able to sell between 8,000-9,000 units. Prices could move upwards of three% in 2022 due to the back of increased construction costs.” Lee says. Lee.

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For the entire 2021 year, HDB resale prices spiked 12.5% y-o-y, clocking the same rate of growth as the year 2011, when prices climbed to 10.7% y-o-y.

HDB prices for resales grew in 3.2% q-o-q in 4Q2021 as compared to 2.9% q-o-q growth recorded during the preceding quarter. It was the seventh consecutive quarterly growth reported by the market.

Overall the overall results of the HDB resale industry was above expectations regarding price growth and the volume of sales according to Christine Sun, senior vice-president of research and analytics for OrangeTee & Tie.

“Prices are increasing because demand continues to outpace supply in several areas. In terms of demand delays in construction and the long times to complete new BTO flats may have led consumers to the second-hand marketplace,” says Sun.

Private homeowners made use of the lucrative private resale market in order to realize the potential value in their properties and then downgraded them in to housing for the public, increasing the number of HDB buyers.

The rising trend in resale prices has given numerous HDB flat owners a jolt after suffering a decline in flat resales values from 2013 and 2018. Wong Siew Ying, head of content and research of PropNex Realty.

“However this kind of double-digit price growth is not sustainable over the long haul. In the midst of the market’s growth however, we are aware that a record number of flats have been sold for more than $1 million in 2021. We anticipate the rate of HDB price increases for resales to slow down to somewhere between 6% to eight% in 2022, as new cooling measures will reduce the booming sentiment in the market.” Wong says. Wong.

Additionally, HDB has announced that it is planning to increase the number of new housing for the public over the next two years.

Sun believes that the latest property cool measures are likely to have a minimal effects on HDB marketplace for resales. “While the majority of buyers won’t be impacted by the reduction in LTV however, buyers could be more cautious in purchasing a home and may also use this chance to negotiate better rates. Certain sellers might begin to adjust their price expectations too,” she says.

The demand in the HDB secondary market is expected to remain strong this year due to the fact that delays to construction are likely to be a problem for some of the new housing developments in the public sector Sun. Sun.

“Most sellers aren’t looking to sell their homes or may be in financial trouble to lower prices significantly. Therefore, we expect that prices will remain on the rise in the coming year, however at a slower rate of 5 to eight%,” she says.

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In the year 2000 there were 27 new developments launched, which is similar to the 26 launches that will be launched in 2020. Developers estimate that they sell 30% more homes in the year to the year prior, says Lee Sze Teck, Huttons Asia Director of Research.

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In the pipeline for launch in 2022 are 41 brand new residential residential developments, which will comprise 5 389 units in total. Based on the amount of units 22% are located in the Core Central Region (CCR) and 37% in the Rest of Central Region (RCR) while the remaining 41% within the Outside Central Region (OCR).

The new home sales that are expected next year could be hampered due to a lack of homes, says Lee. “While the number of launches is greater than 2021’s, the amount of units available is less with 5,389 units available.” The cooling measures announced on Dec 16 could see developers delay their new launches, or even release smaller units to sell Lee says. “This could affect the sales numbers the following year.”

The 2022 launches that could be in the pipeline will generally be of a smaller scale as compared to launches that were launched this year. The coming year will be a year in which there aren’t any mega projects that exceed 1,000 units like Normanton Park this year, notes Tricia Song. CBRE chief of research Southeast Asia. A greater proportion of the new projects are located within the Outside Central Region (OCR) mostly on land that was sold by the government (GLS) sites sold in the latter half of 2020 and 2021.

The 2022 launch of strata-landed housing development Belgravia Ace by Fairview Developments, a joint venture of Tong Eng Brothers and Yeap Holdings. The project will showcase the 107-unit project with three terraced and semi-detached homes on January 8 and the official launch is scheduled to happen two weeks later on Jan 22. Belgravia Ace is the last of three strata landed developments situated at Belgravia Drive, off Ang Mo Kio Avenue 5.

Qingjian Realty’s project of 105 units The Arden at Phoenix Road situated just off Choa Chu Kang Road, is scheduled to go live sometime between the end of January and the beginning of February According to Ismail Gafoor, CEO of PropNex Realty.

Scheduled to be launched in February or in March. Sing Holdings’ 640-unit executive condo (EC) project, North Gaia, at Yishun Avenue 9. Another EC project is the 628-unit development located at Tengah Garden Walk by a joint partnership with City Developments Ltd (CDL) and MCL Land, is expected to launch in the second half of 2022.

Other developments worth keeping an eye to will include Bukit Sembawang’s 298 unit Liv@MB (redevelopment of the Katong Park Towers, which was previously the Katong Park Towers) located at Mountbatten Road; MCC Land’s new mixed-use project that includes 265 housing units in Tanah Merah Kechil next to the Tanah Merah MRT Station; and CDL’s latest mixed-use development (redevelopment from Fuji Xerox Towers).

Significant sites

One of the major projects that could be the focus of attention when it is launched this year is Malaysian company IOI Properties’ mixed-use development in Marina View Marina View, according to Ong Teck Huang, the senior director of research as well as consulting in JLL Singapore. A massive development that includes 905 housing units, Marina View is expected to be a popular choice for buyers because of the CBD position located in Marina Bay, next to Shenton Way MRT Station, the expert says. “It is also the very first housing property to that is launched that is located in Marina Bay’s Marina Bay area since 2014 when Marina One Residences was placed on the market.”

Another initiative involves the development of an integrated project of Jalan Anak Bukit through the joint venture of Far East Organization and sister company Sino Group. “The project is expected to be the largest construction in the Beauty World precinct, standing at the intersection between Lower Bukit Timah and Upper Bukit Timah, Jurong Kechil and the Pan Island Expressway,” According to Ong. “Buyers are likely to find a stunning mixed development that will comprise 845 housing units, with amenities as well as travel conveniences through the close Beauty World MRT Station.”

The renovation that was once the Flynn Park condo in Pasir Panjang that was sold in a single transaction into a joint venture of Hoi Hup and Sunway Developments in September is a potential new launch worth watching. Hoi Hup and Sunway Developments bought two other freehold land parcels located on both sides of Thiam Siew Avenue for $815 million in November. The sites are scheduled to be converted into a brand new condominium project. It is thought to be the biggest residential development site bought since the July of 2018 when the property chilling measures implemented.

As inventory of unsold properties dwindled to a record low of about 15,000 units at the end of November The collective sale market grew during the 4Q2021 period. The majority of projects sold were medium to small residential sites which was in stark contrast those larger group sale sites that were sold in 2017 and 1H2018, according to CBRE’s Song. This is due to the fact that developers were cautious about committing to large sites because of those who pay the% extra buyer’s stamp duty , or ABSD (plus 5% non-remittable ABSD) which was introduced in July 2018 should they not be in a position to sell all their units within the timeframe of five years.

“So far, the vast majority of developers have no or little problem complying with the five-year ABSD timeframe for their current projects,” says Huttons’ Lee. “While the most recent cooling measures are anticipated to slow the rate of price appreciation, there’s not much pressure on developers to lower costs.”

Collective sales slow down

The last year, sales amounted to just $127.3 million, according to Ong Teck Hui, the senior researcher and consulting for JLL Singapore. Deals grew significantly during the year. 11 total sales sites being sold for $2.67 billion.

“This is still a huge away from the previous cycle , when residential collective sales reached $8.1 billion last year and $10 billion in the year 2018,” points out CBRE’s Song. The total number of residential units in the projects that collectively that have been sold by 2021 is the equivalent of 540 units. Therefore, the demand for residential units because of collective sales displacements is at present rather low She adds.

The recent increase in collective sales is expected to slow down due to the 10% rise on ABSD in the case of property developers purchasing private residential sites up to 35% and if they not be able to sell all housing units in the next five years. “This is burdensome on developers and hopefuls of en bloc are required to moderate their expectations regarding price in order to boost the chances of success group,” says Huttons’ Lee.

In addition to a higher ABSD and a tighter total debt-to-debt ratio (TDSR) The government has increased its quantity of land available as part of the 1H2022 Government Land Sales (GLS) programme by 40.9%. This is the biggest increase in terms of percentage since 2H2016, according to Lee. Lee says the Confirmed List will have 2290 privately owned residential homes (excluding ECs), which is the highest number of units since 1H2018.

“While developers need to replenish their land banks The increased quantity of land available, along and the cooling steps that dampen demand, could put downward pressure on land auctions,” notes Lee. “This can have an effect on the selling prices in the end.”

‘Wealth tax’

Lee considers the growth of ABSD as a type of wealth tax, which is aimed at reducing flows of “hot money” into the property market. “Singapore is well-known as a safe haven due to its political stability and the strong rules of law” Lee says. “Despite travel restrictions however, the amount of tourists (including Singapore permanent residents) has seen a dramatic increase in 2021 as compared to 2020. The rise in the number companies purchasing private properties is alarming.”

A tightening in TDSR up to% instead of 60% is “a pre-emptive measure” to encourage prudent financial decisions in the event of a sudden rise in interest rates is said to be a precautionary measure, says Lee. In particular, the amount of money spent by Singaporeans are expected to increase in 2021. “This is to ensure households aren’t financial burdened or stressed in the event of an increase in rates of interest,” he says.

Like all cooling measures Lee claims there will be a “knee-jerk reaction” when everyone attempts to comprehend and evaluate its impact.

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The Singapore residential property market has exploded to records this year. In the first one-year period of 2021 developers completed the sale of 12,467 homes, exceeding the total number of 9,982 units.

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Despite the latest round property cooling measures, which came on December 16, that saw the additional buyer’s stamp duty (ABSD) raised and the total debt service ratio (TDSR) increased, property consultants are projecting that the year will close with around 13,000 homes that are private and new. “It is the highest level since 2013, when 1494 units were sold,” claims Ong Teck Hui JLL executive director for research and consulting.

Private residential resales transactions are anticipated to finish this year with a 19,000-20,000 units -the highest since 2010 – “the highest since 2010 , when 22608 sales were made” In the report, Ong.

In URA’s 3Q2021’s last estimates, prices are rising by 5.1% year-to-September, says Tricia Song, CBRE head of research for Southeast Asia. She predicts prices for private homes to increase in the range of six% up to 7% over the course of the calendar year “in accordance with the ministry of Industry and Trade’s less optimistic 2021 GDP forecast of 7%” according to her.

The latest cooling measures are ‘unexpected’

In a q-o-q perspective that is, it appears that the URA home price index grew only 1.1% in 3Q2021, after an 0.8% rise in 2Q2021. In July of 2018 nine rounds of sanctions were introduced following an increase in the URA price index grew over the second consecutive period: 3.9% in 1Q2018 as well as 3.4% q-o-q in 2Q2018. “The anticipation was for higher price increases before any cooling measures were put in place,” says JLL’s Ong. “The new cooling measures came therefore unanticipated.”

On the other hand, Ong acknowledges that prices and fundamentals started to diverge in 2020 as the URA index increased 2.2% during a severe recession. The rapid growth in transactions this year, accompanied by an increase in demand and a the shrinking inventory of sales is likely to fuel price increases, he says.

This time, the ABSD rate changes this time are more severe than the changes that took place in July 2018 In the words of Ong. They were also accompanied by the tightening of TDSR as well. “Lowering to the TDSR down to 55% rather than sixty% could be an added dampener to the new policies,” he adds.

While the loan-to value (LTV) is a requirement of HDB is now 85% from 90% previously, LTV has remained unchanged at 75% for those who are first-time buyers who are taking out the mortgage. “The government continues to take an stance of policy to protect first-time buyers from any additional cooling regulations, specifically in cases where real family development are in the forefront,” says Lam Chern Woon Edmund Tie head of research and consulting.

Revision of the impact of July 2018 measures

If the July 2018 cooling measures is any indication, the average property prices increased 1.2% a year after the measures were implemented (from 3Q2018 until 2Q2019) as compared to an increase of 9.1% increase in the year prior to the measures were introduced (3Q2017-2Q2018) CBRE’s Song.

After a year of the measures (August 2018 to July 2019,), developers sold 9,489 new homes, which was compared to 9,743 units before those measures (August 2017 through July 2018) According the CBRE Research. The resales market was the one that took the majority from the measures to cool, shrinking by 46% in 9,098 homes, down from 16,943 units during the prior twelve-month period (3Q2017 through 2Q2018).

In terms of segmentation, property prices in the Core Central Region (CCR) declined in 0.5% from 3Q2018 to 2Q2019. Meanwhile, the prices of properties located in Rest of Central Region (RCR) and Outside Central Region (OCR) were up 3.3% and 1.2% and 1.2% respectively, one year following measures being implemented, according to CBRE Research.

“The cooling measures are expected to increase the affordability of new home buyers,” Song says. Song. This will reduce the chance of a hard landing if interest rates increase within the next few years, she states.

In light of the limited new launches coming in 2022 CBRE Research’s Song anticipates homes prices will “normalise” into the 9,000-10,000-unit range in the next. In the meantime, prices could be stagnant or experience one% or 3% rise in 2022. Resales are also anticipated to “normalise” since those who buy the second or greater property are charged more ABSD in addition to the ABSD, she states.

Inflationary pressures

Alan Cheong, head of research at Savills Singapore, is sticking to his prediction of five% or 7% price hike in 2022. This is in line with nominal growth in GDP. “A 7.7% price hike in 2022 is not too high nor alarming since there will be a significant pressure on inflation on the economy for the next this year.” The head of research says.

Cheong isn’t expecting the measures to cool down to have an impact on the market for housing. The 10% increase on ABSD for foreigners up to 30% is not likely to impact the market at the highest end of the market as well Cheong argues.

Based on Ismail Gafoor, CEO of PropNex Foreign buyers comprised only 4.5% of total private non-landed transactions in the year. However, Singaporeans comprised the majority.

A lot of people believe that real estate is a great insurance for inflation Cheong observes. “Inflation will increase the price of construction and it could be passed onto buyers by developers,” he says. “On the subject of interest rates however, as long as they are in a proportional manner they shouldn’t slow the sales of homes.”

Risks are increased

If hyperinflation resurfaces but it’s going to be an entirely different story Cheong says. Cheong. “The increase in interest rates to counter which would hurt the need for mortgages and could have an adverse effect on existing mortgages, due to the increased burden of servicing of mortgagees” Cheong says.

Foreign buyers’ demand in the high-end segment of the market for residential homes is likely to decrease in the 1H2022 period, says Nicholas Mak, head of research and consulting for ERA Realty. But, he anticipates that transactions to rise in the second half of 2022. “Some of those buyers are thinking about saving money and, if they love the property and are looking to purchase to use for their own purposes then they might just decide to take the plunge and shell out to pay the ABSD,” he adds.

Despite property cooling measures however, residential property prices are anticipated to increase in the 2H2022 period due to the rising cost of living, according to Mak. “The costs of land, construction and the replacement costs of real estate will rise,” he adds. Rent rates are also expected to rise to meet the demand for rental property when foreigners return.

“As as regards Omicron, the Omicron variant, the population is becoming more reserved and comfortable with variations after repeatedly experiencing unsuccessful attempts to expand the economy as well as cross-border travel” Cheong says. Savills’ Cheong. “Unless governments worldwide are able to sound a more loud alarm about this variant or any other variants in the future society will just accept it and go on as normal although at a slower rate due to the ongoing pandemic efforts.”